The USD/JPY just broke through the 153.00 mark, and the latest price was 153.01, up 0.25% in the day.Institution: It is expected that the PC market in China will resume growth in the second half of 2025. IDC, an international data company, issued a document saying that the overall PC market in China is expected to improve in 2025, and the shipment volume will drop slightly by 0.2% compared with that in 2024. Among them, the first half of 2025 will be affected by the early release of demand at the end of 2024, and the expected shipment volume is still negative, down 4.2% year-on-year; In the second half of 2025, it will improve as a whole, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%.Institution: It is expected that the PC market in China will resume growth in the second half of 2025. IDC, an international data company, issued a document saying that the overall PC market in China is expected to improve in 2025, and the shipment volume will drop slightly by 0.2% compared with that in 2024. Among them, the first half of 2025 will be affected by the early release of demand at the end of 2024, and the expected shipment volume is still negative, down 4.2% year-on-year; In the second half of 2025, it will improve as a whole, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%.
Bai Zhongen: Under special circumstances, short-term breakthrough in deficit and debt may help solve long-term problems. Bai Zhongen, president of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that in the understanding and implementation of policies, there are sometimes some stereotypes, which make us bound by these stereotypes. Breaking these constraints is very important for our policy understanding and policy implementation. The first mindset is that it will bring moral hazard if the central government helps local governments pay their debts. The second mindset, in the past, some people insisted that the deficit should not exceed a certain proportion and the debt should not exceed a certain proportion. He bluntly said that the upper limit of debt and deficit also depends on short-term and long-term. In the long run, we can't have too many deficits and too many debts. Therefore, when we encounter special circumstances in the short term, we should allow the deficit and debt to exceed a certain ratio.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.Luo Zhiheng, Yuekai Securities: It is expected that the monetary policy will be further strengthened in 2025, or the RRR will be lowered or the interest rate will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points respectively. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, believes that overall, the tone of the meeting is more positive, and positive signals are released in terms of work objectives, policy tone and task deployment next year, which is conducive to strengthening and consolidating the momentum of sustained economic recovery next year. It is still a high probability that China's economy will achieve a growth rate of around 5% next year, as long as we implement greater fiscal and monetary policies, ensure that the policies work in the same direction, and promote a series of institutional reforms that restrict development. Luo Zhiheng predicts that in 2025, the monetary policy will be further strengthened, and the RRR and interest rate will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points respectively throughout the year; Rhythm or more advanced. In addition, the monetary policy toolbox will be further enriched and improved. On the one hand, it will adjust and optimize the policy tools such as refinancing of affordable housing, "convenient exchange of securities, funds and insurance companies" and stock repurchase and refinancing, which will be implemented and achieved practical results; On the other hand, we may appropriately narrow the width of the interest rate corridor and guide the money market interest rate to run smoothly around the policy interest rate center.
Hezhou, Guangxi: It is planned to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans such as newly-built single-family commercial houses and townhouses. The Hezhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the Notice on Adjusting the Use Policy of Housing Provident Fund in this Municipality (draft for comments). The document also requires that the proportion and number of housing provident fund loans be optimized. The minimum down payment ratio for the first and second sets of housing provident fund loans is not less than 20%. The number of housing units applying for housing provident fund loans is determined according to the number of housing units of the applicant's family in the place of purchase (Babu District, Pinggui District, Zhongshan County, fuchuan county and Zhaoping County). Increase efforts to support the purchase of houses in different places and withdraw housing provident fund. Cancel the restrictions on the residence registration and work place for purchasing houses in different places. If the depositor of the housing provident fund in this city purchases self-occupied houses in different places, and the purchase time is within two years from the date of issuance of this notice, he may apply for the purchase of houses and withdraw the housing provident fund, and the total withdrawal amount shall not exceed the purchase price paid. If you have applied for a house purchase loan and repaid it for one year, you can apply for withdrawing the housing provident fund to repay the housing loan. The document also proposes to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans for newly-built single-family commercial houses, townhouses with low floors, townhouses with multi-floors and non-standard duplex houses.Afternoon comments on Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Index fell by 1.66%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.95%, Hong Kong stocks closed at noon, Hang Seng Index fell by 1.66% and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.95%. Sunac China fell more than 6%, while Xpeng Motors and CITIC Securities fell more than 4%.Hezhou, Guangxi: It is planned to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans such as newly-built single-family commercial houses and townhouses. The Hezhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the Notice on Adjusting the Use Policy of Housing Provident Fund in this Municipality (draft for comments). The document also requires that the proportion and number of housing provident fund loans be optimized. The minimum down payment ratio for the first and second sets of housing provident fund loans is not less than 20%. The number of housing units applying for housing provident fund loans is determined according to the number of housing units of the applicant's family in the place of purchase (Babu District, Pinggui District, Zhongshan County, fuchuan county and Zhaoping County). Increase efforts to support the purchase of houses in different places and withdraw housing provident fund. Cancel the restrictions on the residence registration and work place for purchasing houses in different places. If the depositor of the housing provident fund in this city purchases self-occupied houses in different places, and the purchase time is within two years from the date of issuance of this notice, he may apply for the purchase of houses and withdraw the housing provident fund, and the total withdrawal amount shall not exceed the purchase price paid. If you have applied for a house purchase loan and repaid it for one year, you can apply for withdrawing the housing provident fund to repay the housing loan. The document also proposes to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans for newly-built single-family commercial houses, townhouses with low floors, townhouses with multi-floors and non-standard duplex houses.
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide
12-14